Bitcoin (BTC) enthusiasts are speculating about the possibility of unprecedented gains due to a simple trend line breakout, as pointed out by a popular trader, Titan of Crypto, in a recent Twitter discussion. Titan of Crypto highlighted a rare bull signal on the Bollinger Bands indicator for the Bitcoin monthly chart, suggesting that BTC price may see an “inexorable breakout.”
Currently, the sentiment regarding BTC price action varies across multiple timeframes. In the short term, observers remain uncertain, while on a larger scale, consensus leans towards significant upside potential as the block subsidy halving draws nearer.
To forecast the cryptocurrency’s price trajectory, one may refer to volatility data from past halving cycles. As emphasized by Titan of Crypto, Bollinger Bands on monthly timeframes are setting up for a repeat of a breakout event that has happened only once per cycle. In the previous two occurrences, 2016 and 2019, BTC/USD pierced the upper section of the Bollinger Band channel, leading to substantial gains.
Bollinger Bands serve as a principal volatility indicator across different price timeframes. The 20-period simple moving average (SMA) functions as the midline, with two standard deviations above and below it creating the channel. The bands expand and contract with volatility, and events such as price touching or breaking beyond the bands often hold significance for traders.
At present, the one-month BTC/USD chart depicts the price attempting to surpass the SMA line. If confirmed, this would indicate a classic repeat of previous bull runs. Titan of Crypto asserts this as an “inexorable breakout,” with the first target set at a solid $63,500.
This price target, although not quite matching Bitcoin’s current all-time high, could be reached around the point of the halving in one year’s time. The actual duration, however, remains to be determined, as acknowledged by Titan of Crypto.
In contrast, last month, John Bollinger, the creator of Bollinger Bands, suggested that Bitcoin was at a critical point on daily timeframes. At that time, the price was retesting the SMA line as support before breaking through and oscillating around it. Now, however, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView suggests that the price is moving higher toward the upper band.
Despite Bitcoin’s recent drop from local highs of $31,000, analyst CryptoCon argued that low-timeframe Bollinger Band norms were still intact. He noted that significant corrections historically occur only after the upper parameter is met and exceeded, with the current price of the upper band at $35,790.