The Bitcoin price races towards $27,000, displaying strength by recovering quickly from the $25,500 support level on June 6. However, breaking above $27,500 may not be a simple task. Investors still expect stricter regulatory scrutiny following FTX’s bankruptcy in November 2022, including recent actions against Coinbase and Binance. Over the past six months, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has undertaken eight cryptocurrency-related enforcement actions.
Some analysts suggest that the SEC is trying to redeem itself for failing to police FTX by taking action against the two leading exchanges. Additionally, investors fear an imminent global recession, which limits the upside of risk-on assets such as stocks, cryptocurrencies, and emerging markets. The Euro zone entered recession in the first quarter of this year, as revealed by revised estimates from the region’s statistics office, Eurostat, on June 8.
Billionaire Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warned of excess debt offer amid a shortage of buyers. This is especially concerning since the U.S. government is desperate to raise cash after the debt ceiling was hit. Recent macroeconomic data has been mostly negative, with China announcing a 4.5% decline in imports year-over-year on June 6 and Japan posting a 0.30% quarter-over-quarter gross domestic product contraction on June 7.
Bitcoin derivatives metrics provide insight into how professional traders are positioned amid this weaker global environment. The OKX margin-lending ratio spiked on June 5 after Bitcoin crashed by 7% to $25,500. This indicator reached an impressive 62 favoring longs, which is highly unusual and unsustainable. The ratio adjusted to 34 on June 6 as leveraged longs were forced to reduce exposure and additional margin was likely deposited.
Exchanges’ top traders Bitcoin long-to-short ratio has also been reducing between June 7 and June 8, indicating a lack of confidence. The ratio for OKX top traders declined to 0.78 on June 8 after peaking at 1.08 on June 7. At crypto exchange Binance, the long-to-short ratio declined to 1.29 on June 8 from 1.35 on the previous day.
Overall, Bitcoin bulls seem to be in a challenging position, both from the worsening regulatory crypto environment and unfolding global economic crisis. Bitcoin derivatives markets indicate a low probability of the BTC price breaking above $27,500 in the short to medium term. The Bitcoin market structure is bearish, so a $25,500 support retest is the most probable outcome.
Source: Cointelegraph
