The upcoming week poses significant challenges for both stocks and crypto markets alike with traders remaining cautious ahead of major events that could impact recent market recovery. Renewed interest from financial institutions caused Bitcoin (BTC) price to hit a yearly high of $31,400 in what has been a relatively average week on the macro front.
Investors will need to monitor upcoming key events closely, as they may lead to market volatility. For example, on Monday and Tuesday, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will give speeches at the 2023 ECB Forum on Central Banking, focusing on monetary policy and inflation challenges in the Euro area. Additionally, the US Treasury Dept will auction 3-month and 6-month treasury bills as well as the 2-year treasury note.
Further speeches by ECB officials during the 2023 ECB Forum can be expected on June 27, discussing monetary policy outlook and efforts to bring inflation to its target. The same day, the US Census Bureau will release new home sales data for May, with market expectations of 670,000.
US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to give speeches on June 28 and 29, addressing monetary policy as the Fed has decided to keep the interest rate unchanged in June before signaling hikes later this year. CME FedWatch Tool predicts a 72% probability of a 25 bps hike in July. Additionally, the Federal Reserve is set to release stress test results on Wednesday in order to measure bank resilience.
A major US data release, the Q1 GDP data, will occur on June 29, helping traders look for guidance on economic projections and impacting investor sentiment. On June 30, the US PCE inflation and UK GDP releases will enable investors to gauge economic outlook. In particular, the US PCE inflation, which serves as the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, is expected to show that price pressures eased slightly in May.
For the crypto market, there is a significant weekly and monthly event happening on June 30. Over 145k BTC options with a notional value of $4.5 billion are set to expire. With a Put/Call Ratio of 0.52, call open interests of 95k, and put open interests of 49k, the max pain point is at 25,000. The max pain point represents the price at which the largest number of options holders face financial loss. Currently, BTC price is trading near the $30,750 level.
In summary, events this week have the potential to impact both stocks and crypto markets significantly, with volatility expected due to GDP and inflation data releases, central bank officials’ speeches, and other macro factors. As such, investors must keep a watchful eye on these events to make informed decisions.
Source: Coingape
