The forthcoming week in the crypto market brings several noteworthy macroeconomic events from the United States, all vying for the limelight. Any signals or outliers pointing to a decline in inflation without inducing a severe recession will undoubtedly hold crypto investors’ rapt attention. Even with a favorable downward swing in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) last Wednesday – above expectations – the US central bank remains unswayed from its decision to hike the interest rate by 25 basis points (bps).
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is readying for its next policy meeting spanning over two days, commencing on July 25th. Meanwhile, the FedWatch tool, a pulse meter for interest rate decisions, registers above 97%. An uptick from its high metric in recent weeks, this firmly echoes the sentiment of numerous bank officials that inflation continues to pose an economic threat, despite last month’s halted rate increases.
The hawkish monetary stance typically puts strain on crypto prices and stokes investor fears about central bank’s overreach. Interestingly, last week’s 3.1% reading, a continuation of the prevailing downward trend, barely registered in the crypto markets. A marginally favorable court decision on Ripple’s XRP played a more consequential role instead.
This week’s macroeconomic data, encompassing retail, industrial productivity, home sales, and the usual weekly jobless claims, holds potential sway. June’s retail sales metrics will be unveiled on Tuesday by the U.S. Commerce Department. The consensus points to a 0.5% rise, a slight improvement on May’s 0.3% reading, surpassing expectations.
More tellingly, persistent growth insinuates sustained consumer spending on household and other items, signalling the kind of economic expansion that triggers price increases. The Fed will also release Industrial Production figures on the same day, shedding light on May’s economic growth snapshot.
Then comes Thursday, where the Labor Department wields weekly jobless claims. The predictions hover at 240,000 unemployment claims, an uptick from last week’s 237,000. As the unemployment market prepares for more substantial increases as an indicator of a cooling job market, the claims tally has remained comfortably above 200,000.
Also released on Thursday, the National Association of Realtors discloses its June report on existing home sales, with market slowing anticipations dominating the outlook. The robust housing market of the past has added to inflationary pressures.
Last week started the earnings season for big banks with a bang: JPMorgan Chase netted a staggering 67% rise in income and a 34% increase in revenue. Keep an eye peeled for upcoming financial reports this Tuesday from the Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab, PNC Financial Services, and the Bank of New York Mellon. Closely following on Wednesday is the report from Goldman Sachs.
Source: Coindesk
