Bitcoin’s Struggle at $30k: Analyzing Market Structure, MACD Signals, and Exchange Supply

Intricate crypto market scene, sunset hues, delicate brush strokes, contemplative mood, Bitcoin floating near $30k support, chart patterns like MACD & RSI, dwindling exchange supply, anticipating bulls and bears, finding footing for potential uptrend, artistic blend of technical analysis.

Over the last 24 hours, Bitcoin price has experienced a 1.1% loss, currently trading at $30,308 on Monday. Despite a bullish outlook over the weekend and consolidation above $30,000, Bitcoin’s price hasn’t been able to sustain gains beyond its 12-month high of $31,428.

According to analysts at Rekt Capital, when a Bitcoin correction ends convincingly, it’s highly unlikely another deep correction will occur right after. Instead, any downside would likely be dips as part of a new uptrend continuation. Currently, Bitcoin price is seeking support at $30,000 following the pullback from $31,428, which could be part of a larger uptrend, given the improved market structure.

As the Rekt Capital analyst suggested, Bitcoin might be circling back to either $30,000 or $29,000, allowing more buyers to join the market and capitalize on the anticipated leap to $38,000. The market structure has significantly improved over the last week, with an uptick above all applied moving averages and the short-term descending trendline since mid-April. This development indicates that buyers have the upper hand.

The bullish narrative has been reinforced by a buy signal from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Nonetheless, investors should keep a close eye on the MACD’s movements in the coming sessions or days, as a sell signal may emerge if the blue MACD line crosses below the red signal line. Moreover, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently in the overbought region, a retreat to the neutral zone could intensify overhead pressure.

On-chain data from analytics platform Glassnode notes that Bitcoin’s supply held across exchange addresses has continued to drop since the pandemic, now accounting for approximately 2.27 million BTC, or 11.7%. This figure is the lowest since December 2017. As supply across exchanges shrinks, selling pressure typically decreases, allowing a suitable environment for a rally, considering the increasing demand for Bitcoin.

Investors might want to observe Bitcoin’s reaction at the $30,000 support level. A rebound from this point could signal that bulls are prepared to push Bitcoin toward $38,000. However, on the downside, Bitcoin’s price may revisit support at $29,000 and $28,000, providing an opportunity for bulls to harness fresh liquidity and aim for a stronger trend reversal.

Source: Coingape

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