In an environment where Bitcoin (BTC) recently concluded its longest negative year-over-year returns, optimistic voices like Dan Morehead, founder of the crypto investment firm Pantera Capital, persist. As of June 12, Bitcoin’s price has languished in negative territory for 15 straight months according to Morehead, surpassing the previous absence of growth that lasted less than a year from Nov. 14, 2014, to Oct. 31, 2015. However, one cannot ignore that Wednesday saw Bitcoin bucking this trend, escalating more than 20% over the year, even with last week’s stumble from the nearly $30,000 mark.
Highlighting the potential upswing catalysts lurks the favorable court judgment for the XRP token for Ripple Labs that remains unchallenged. Also, encouraging nod have come from heavy-hitting asset managers such as BlackRock and Fidelity seen through their spot bitcoin ETF applications.
Morehead seems undeterred by the efficient market hypothesis, in regard to the forthcoming half-cut of the BTC block reward for mining fresh blocks in April 2024. Contrarily, he believes it will propel the price. In his perspective, if the demand for bitcoins remains constant and the incoming supply halves, the consequence is inevitably a price surge. His models hint that bitcoin bottomed out last year and will strike around $35,500 by the April 2024 halving, and near a staggering $150,000 by late 2025.
Simultaneously, recent European economic fragility sent previously soaring interest rates reeling, with 10-year bond yields in Germany, the U.K. and the U.S. depreciated by 12 to 20 basis points. This contrastingly resulted in elevating U.S. stock indexes with Nasdaq leading with a 1.5% hike.
In light of these fluctuations, Bitcoin inched up 2% to $26,400, mirroring the uptick for the CoinDesk Market Index (CMI). As we approach Friday morning’s anticipated economic event—the keynote speech by U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell at the Kansas City Fed’s Jackson Hole Symposium, the prevalent hunch is that Powell maintains the status quo message. Primarily, the Fed’s concentration on bounding inflation and making continued data-based decisions on potential monetary policy tightening. This raises questions regarding its impact on the crypto market and more specifically, the future trajectory of BTC.
Source: Coindesk
