The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) could be set to erase its BTC price ‘discount’ by 2024 according to a recent analysis shared on the CoinGlass platform. The GBTC fund, composed of over 600,000 BTC, has interestingly traded at a discount to the Bitcoin spot price since February 2021, a status previously referred to as the “GBTC premium.” Yet recent momentum hints that these dynamics may be about to undergo a remarkable shift.
The catalyst fuelling this new narrative can be traced back to a court victory Grayscale secured against U.S regulators on Aug. 29, providing a much-needed boost to GBTC performance. Subsequently, it was announced that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) would have to consider GBTC’s conversion to a Bitcoin spot price exchange-traded fund (ETF) on equal terms as other applicants. This turn of events sent the ‘discount’ to its lowest levels since December 2021, reaching just -17%, markedly less than the near 50% peak.
Dylan LeClair, a senior analyst at digital asset fund UTXO Management, emphasizes the significance of GBTC’s size, highlighting that the trust holds more than 600,000 BTC which arguably made it the largest driver of the 2021 bull run.
While this provides a juicy backdrop for positive speculation, the inherent challenges cannot be dismissed. The key lies in how the market will react to these shifts and whether they would be enough to pull BTC back up from its recent lows. Experts observe that several moving averages (MAs) are yet to be achieved, making the path to ‘GBTC premium’ not without its hurdles.
Furthermore, a notable point to consider is the broader market implications. The potential return of some moving averages (MAs) has been flagged by market participants. At present, market data shows the BTC/USD struggling to hold these levels, regardless of the recent daily candle closing upward.
Overall, the tussle between these conflicting dynamics provides a captivating tale. While there is evidently a possibility for the GBTC discount to disappear, this hinges on a slew of factors, key among them; market conditions, regulatory decisions, and, of course, investor behaviour. Truly, the next few months promise to be critical in shaping not just the future of GBTC but also the larger narrative in the realm of cryptocurrency investment.
Source: Cointelegraph
