The skeptics amongst our readers might have found it perplexing – the recent interpretations circling around, labelling BTC current state as its ‘longest ever bear market’. Some would even vehemently argue that the popular cryptocurrency is not even in a bear market. This discrepancy is not due to ignorance but rather due to the mutable interpretation of phrases like ‘bull’ and ‘bear market’.
This semantic ambiguity perhaps is a result of contrasting financial views on whether these terms refer to past price flows or are synonyms for future predictions. The simple tenet in this debate is whether you consider the market state as ‘bull’ or ‘bear’ will considerably impact the accuracy of your market prognosis and investment strategies.
You might agree with the claim, made by Michaël van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading, that the grand ‘BTC’ is currently its longest bear market. The argument that follows, focuses on the fact that ‘BTC’ price now barely touches 50% of its peak valuation in November ’21 – implying it has been in a bear market for almost 490 days.
Alternatively, you could align with a more optimistic view, offered by Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan, who argues that ‘if you zoom out enough, Bitcoin is just one big green candle and has been in a continuous bull market since 2019’. Arguably, this perspective largely depends on your level of patience and how far are you willing to stretch your investment timeframe.
Interestingly, it can also be argued that Bitcoin may not be in a bear market at all. Traditional market definitions consider a bear market as a situation when a market index or asset falls by 20% or more from its recent high. Looking at this definition and considering Bitcoin’s most recent high in mid-July 2023, it’s only around 13% shy of that level, and it has climbed up by 34% over the past year.
Needless to say, perspectives on market trends anlysts serve are to guide and inform, they are not a stone tablet of financial truth. Hence, the decision on which investment strategy to follow heavily depends on your investment goals, risk tolerance and timeframe. Watching market trends with patience and careful analysis will eventually lead to wise investment decisions.
Source: Cointelegraph
