In a turn of events that underline a changing tide in financial regulation, a federal judge recently overturned the SEC’s dismissal of Grayscale‘s proposal to morph its Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into an ETF. This decision has sent ripple effects across the crypto market and increased chances for a spot Bitcoin ETF to gain approval from the SEC.
Critics draw attention to the SEC’s seemingly blurred reasoning for their initial refusal, hinting at a shift in regulations that embraces digital currencies. Many experts now entertain the probability of SEC approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF in the near future, with some predicting the green light coming as soon as this year. This sentiment is reflected among Bloomberg analysts projecting a 75% likelihood of spot Bitcoin ETF acceptance in 2023.
Simultaneously, Grayscale’s Bitcoin and Ethereum trusts are trading at dwindling discounts to their net asset values (NAV). This suggests a surge in investor optimism, viewing these trusts as lucrative ventures in Bitcoin and Ethereum. The constricting discounts could serve to pull in even more investors to Grayscale’s offerings.
However, this does leave investors facing a challenging decision—should they commit to GBTC, potentially profiting once the discount disappears with an ETF’s approval? Or should they throw their lot in with Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust (ETHE)?
The allowance of a spot Bitcoin ETF might lead to substantial consequences for the crypto market. Providing U.S. investors with a familiar path to Bitcoin investment could trigger an increase in demand, potentially boosting the currency’s price. Prolonged exposure could likely eliminate the discount on GBTC, leading to sizeable gains for those deciding to remain with Grayscale during this process.
However, analysts like Alex Tapscott expect the real prize to be Grayscale’s Ethereum Trust. Tapscott reasons that once Bitcoin gains approval, Ethereum’s approval will undoubtedly follow—the impact of which, he argues, would be larger due to Ethereum’s role as the leading platform for Web3 development.
In the heart of Grayscale’s battle with the SEC was the agency’s rejection of Grayscale’s intent to convert GBTC into a Bitcoin spot ETF—primarily due to market manipulation risks. The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit unanimously nullified the SEC’s initial denial, decreeing their decision as indiscriminate and impulsive.
This groundbreaking verdict prompted a spike in GBTC trading, with investors foreseeing a reduction in its discount compared to Bitcoin’s spot price. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, a product boasting a nearly $14 billion market cap, persists as a potent influence within crypto investing. The forecast looks bright for investors as Grayscale steadily recovers from a prevailing discount period.
Source: Cryptonews
