The price action of Bitcoin has generated quite the buzz among crypto enthusiasts, with many speculators crowning it as a mirror image of the pre-bull market cycle from 2015-2017. Recent analysis from Delphi Digital suggests that the current consolidation on Bitcoin near $30,000 is reminiscent of this period, with a comeback predicted to hit the ceiling by the end of 2024.
Delving into these predictions, the intriguing study sheds light on some fascinating trends within the crypto market, making a compelling case for the intrinsic cyclicality that underpins it. Crypto market cycles, as demonstrated by Bitcoin time and time again, establish a pattern of new all-time highs (ATHs), followed by approximately 80% drawdowns, and a subsequent recovery period that spans two years to surpass previous highs. Another intriguing happenstance is the Bitcoin halving events that occur approximately 18 months after Bitcoin bottoms, which often precede a new ATH by an estimated seven months.
However, the projection of these cycles into the future comes with a fair share of skepticism. With the strength of the US dollar, changes in global liquidity cycles, an increasingly volatile economic climate, and the ever-looming threat of currency debasement, it’s becoming more difficult to predict the certainty of these cycles. The parallels that Delphi draws between conditions now and those in the 2015-2017 cycle hint at similar macroeconomic conditions, raising eyebrows regarding how much the past can truly forecast the future.
Indeed, anticipated market activity, historical trends, and economic indicators have led many to create an optimism within crypto spaces that echoes the sentiments of potential growth seen between 2015-2017. Also, the upcoming Bitcoin Halving in 2024 adds weight to these claims, anticipating a possible surge in the market by the end of that year.
Yet, all these promising signs need to be taken with a grain of salt. Although historical patterns suggest a promising outlook for the next 12-18 months, the crypto market remains inherently unpredictable and fraught with risks. It’s a continuous roller-coaster ride where predictions and trends are just as likely to be defied as they are to be followed. Love it or hate it, the world of cryptocurrencies is a game of wait and see, but nothing short of riveting.
Source: Cointelegraph
