Digital assets are often praised as a unique asset class that operates independently from other markets. However, analysis from S&P Global indicates that crypto markets are not entirely insulated from broader economic influences. In fact, global market volatility seems to have the most pronounced impact on the cryptocurrency space.
S&P Global’s report, titled “Are crypto markets correlated with macroeconomic factors?”, delves into some major industry themes such as whether crypto can serve as a hedge against inflation, the effect of US dollar strength or weakness, and the potential for financial stresses and market volatility to spill over into the crypto sector. Furthermore, it explores the impact of monetary policies on cryptocurrency markets.
The study found a correlation between increased financial stress, market volatility, and declining crypto prices. This suggests a potential contagion risk, where turmoil in traditional finance could extend to the cryptocurrency market. For instance, when the World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a global pandemic in March 2020, Bitcoin experienced one of its worst single-day losses in history.
S&P Global also highlighted the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the cryptocurrency sector. Expansionary measures that increase disposable income can encourage investment in “risk-on” assets such as cryptocurrencies. Conversely, tighter monetary policies, like interest rate hikes, can lead to increased financial stress and market volatility, causing digital asset prices to fall.
Despite its connection to macroeconomic factors, some argue Bitcoin still remains resilient amidst economic uncertainties. Alex Adelman, CEO and co-founder of Lolli, pointed out that Bitcoin’s price has remained strong even with questions around the debt ceiling, inflation, and upcoming interest rate decisions.
Adelman believes that Bitcoin continues to be a favored independent asset by investors, regardless of macroeconomic fluctuations. This reinforces its appeal among investors who value the consistently upheld value of the digital asset.
Others have argued that stress within the banking sector could actually benefit the cryptocurrency market. This highlights the ongoing argument regarding the volatility of crypto markets and their potential correlation—or lack thereof—with macroeconomic factors. As a result, the true relationship between crypto markets and broader economic influences remains disputed among investors and market participants.
Source: Blockworks
