An indicator that has consistently foreshadowed the previous three major Bitcoin bull markets appears to be on the verge of turning green once more. Bitcoin’s Realized Price – the average price when each coin last moved – is predicted to soon surpass the Realized Price of Long-term Holders, according to a chart offered by Blockware Solutions in their weekly newsletter featuring Glassnode data.
The Realized Price of Long-term Holders refers to coins that haven’t moved in at least 155 days and are not held in major centralized cryptocurrency exchanges. With Bitcoin’s recent rally into the upper-$20,000s to $30,000 area, the Realized Price is expected to continue rising. Consequently, the Realized Price of Longer-term Holders will likely rise as well, albeit with a delay.
The approaching green light on the Realized Price/Realized Price of Longer-term Holders indicator adds to a growing number of technical and on-chain indicators that suggest a new Bitcoin bull market is here. For example, all eight of the on-chain and technical indicators tracked by Glassnode’s Recovering from a Bitcoin Bear dashboard have indicated a bull market for most of the last six weeks or so.
In addition to the indicators mentioned above, CryptoQuant’s PnL Index has “confirmed” that Bitcoin entered the early stages of a bull market earlier this year. Analysis of Bitcoin’s longer-term market cycle, which typically lasts about four years, suggests that we could be in the initial phases of a potentially three-year-long bull run.
If the recent trend holds true, each Bitcoin bear market would have lasted for around one year, while each bull market would have lasted about three years. This means we might currently be about six months into a new three-year-long bull market.
In the lead-up to and aftermath of next year’s Bitcoin halving event, the Bitcoin Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model supports the idea that a new bull run is coming. The S2F model estimates price levels based on the number of BTC available in the market relative to the amount being mined each year. According to this model, Bitcoin’s fair price is currently around $55K and could surge above $500K in the next post-halving market cycle, representing approximately 18.5x gains from present levels.
Furthermore, Blockchaincenter.net’s popular Bitcoin Rainbow Chart indicates that Bitcoin is currently in the “BUY!” zone, having recently rebounded from the “Basically a Fire Sale” zone in late 2022. As a result, the model suggests that Bitcoin is gradually recovering from being significantly oversold.
During its last bull run, Bitcoin reached the “Sell. Seriously, SELL!” zone on the Rainbow Chart. If this can be replicated in the next post-halving market cycle (within one to one-and-a-half years after the next halving), the model predicts a potential Bitcoin price in the $200-$300K range, translating to around 8-13x gains from current levels.
Source: Cryptonews
