On May 12, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price dipped below the critical 55-day resistance at $27,000, marking a 12.3% drop over 30 days. Interestingly, it also decoupled from the S&P 500 index, which remained almost constant within the same timeframe. Some Bitcoin investors seem to feel that the advantageous macroeconomic trends for risk markets are being overshadowed by growing negative sentiment towards the cryptocurrency sector.
Factors such as the impending U.S. government debt ceiling crisis and the $5.6 trillion commercial real estate market have raised concerns about general financial stability. For instance, U.S. Treasury President Janet Yellen warned that the debt ceiling crisis could cause an “economic and financial catastrophe.” This increased risk of default could increase demand for scarce assets like Bitcoin, as investors might seek shelter from a possible weakened U.S. dollar. Additionally, Guggenheim Partners CIO Anne Walsh revealed that a real estate recession might be looming, but noted that it will not impact the entire real estate market.
On the bright side, there have been positive advancements in cryptocurrency regulations. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce filed an amicus brief on May 9 in support of the Coinbase exchange while accusing the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) of intentionally creating an unsteady and uncertain environment for the sector. Additionally, the upcoming Bitcoin halving in 2024 and the continued growth of “wholecoiners” are fueling investors’ optimism for a possible bull run.
Professional traders are becoming more aware of the liquidation risks associated with futures contracts and are opting to employ options-based strategies like “risk reversal.” This approach involves buying call options while selling put options to hedge losses from unexpected price swings. In essence, it provides unlimited gains with a capped loss, allowing savvy investors to profit from increased volatility or protect themselves from sharp price drops.
Despite Bitcoin’s recent price weakness, there are numerous factors and potential triggers that could drive a sustained bull run in the coming months. The use of an option-based strategy, like risk reversal, provides investors with an opportunity to navigate the volatile landscape more effectively. It is important to remember that all investments carry risks, and individuals should conduct their own research before making a decision. This article serves as a general information piece and should not be taken as legal or investment advice.
Source: Cointelegraph
