AI-Powered Trolly Problem: ChatGPT Predicts Crypto Winners and Losers, But Can We Trust the Oracle?

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Coinbase executive Conor Grogan recently unveiled a technique that allows the artificial intelligence (AI) tool ChatGPT to give probability assessments for different cryptocurrency price scenarios. In a Twitter post on April 30, he shared a screenshot demonstrating ChatGPT’s predictions for various cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin (BTC), ethereum (ETH), litecoin (LTC), and dogecoin (DOGE).

According to Grogan’s screenshot, ChatGPT estimated a 15% chance for BTC to lose relevance, with its price dropping by over 99.99% by 2035. The AI tool showed more uncertainty about ETH, forecasting a 20% likelihood of it becoming insignificant and reaching near-zero prices in the same timeframe. ChatGPT was even more skeptical about LTC and DOGE’s future, assigning probabilities of 35% and 45%, respectively, for these coins to experience near-zero values.

Grogan concluded that although ChatGPT seems “generally” supportive of bitcoin, it remains more cautious about altcoins. To demonstrate ChatGPT’s prediction accuracy, Grogan claimed to have tested the prompts over 100 times and shared the script he used to generate the probability tables.

This is not Grogan’s first time showcasing ChatGPT’s capabilities. On March 15, he revealed that GPT-4, the latest version of ChatGPT, can detect security vulnerabilities in Ethereum smart contracts and even provide outlines for exploiting faulty contracts.

Conor Grogan’s “jailbreak” for ChatGPT has attracted interest in the AI tool’s ability to generate probability estimates for various cryptocurrency and political scenarios. While the accuracy of these predictions in the long term is uncertain, this development emphasizes AI’s potential to play a significant role in forecasting trends in the crypto market and beyond.

The main conflict in this article is the potential for AI-powered predictions for the future of cryptocurrencies, and whether we can trust these predictions in such a volatile market. On the one hand, AI tools like ChatGPT may offer valuable insights into potential market trends that can be beneficial for investors and enthusiasts. On the other hand, the level of skepticism about altcoins, as well as the overall uncertainty surrounding the predictions, raises questions about the reliability of these AI-generated forecasts.

In conclusion, the emergence of AI-generated probability assessments for cryptocurrency prices is an intriguing development that showcases the potential of AI in the world of digital currencies. However, as the crypto market continues to evolve rapidly, it remains to be seen if these AI predictions will prove accurate enough to be considered reliable in the long run.

Coinbase exec cracks ChatGPT’s crypto predictions

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