The ongoing deadlock in negotiations concerning the $31.4 trillion U.S. government debt limit has left markets on edge, prompting some analysts to predict potential negative effects on the crypto market in the event of a deal being reached. As the Treasury’s cash balance has dwindled to just $68 billion, there is an increased risk of government default and stronger dependence on bitcoin and other assets sensitive to U.S. dollar liquidity.
A successful deal to raise the debt limit could lead to a rebuilding of the Treasury’s cash balance through issuing government bonds. This would likely result in a withdrawal of liquidity from the system and increased pressure on bond yields as higher issuance pushes down prices and raises yields. Bitcoin, known to move in the opposite direction of bond yields, could potentially suffer in this scenario.
Noelle Acheson, former head of research at CoinDesk and Genesis Trading, commented on the possible consequences for crypto assets. She suggested that the issuance of debt to replenish funds could lead to money shifting from cash and risk assets to U.S. government bonds, negatively affecting bitcoin and gold prices as yield environments typically challenge non-yielding assets. Additional U.S. government debt might also boost public spending and economic recovery, further stalling rate cuts.
The prevailing market consensus suggests that a default would trigger panic-selling and a global rush for cash, reminiscent of the coronavirus-induced crash in March 2020, when bitcoin prices plunged by over 50%. Likewise, a positive debt deal could stimulate risk-on action.
Despite the apparent haven status of bitcoin during previous market turbulence, it remains a primarily liquidity-sensitive risk asset, raising questions about its prospects in the event of a debt deal. Satyakam Gautam, a rates trader at India-based ICICI Bank, suggested that the Treasury could issue $700 billion of bonds within the upcoming months, leading to significant risk aversion and potential challenges for corporate bond markets and private credit.
In summary, while a successful deal to raise the U.S. government debt ceiling might alleviate concerns over major economic uncertainty, its potential impact on bitcoin and other fiat liquidity-dependent assets could lead to adverse consequences for the cryptocurrency market as a whole.
Source: Coindesk
